INFLATION 2022 - CIRCUMSTANCES, CHALLENGES, IMPACT
SELECTED PAPERS
The ninth annual scientific conference of the Monetary and Economic Research Center (MRC) was held from the 18th to the 20th of September 2023 at the University of National and World Economy (UNWE) in Sofia, Bulgaria. The MRC Conference aims to bring together the international academic community, enable interactive discussions and other forms of interpersonal exchange of experience, and support the power of scientific research. ISBN: 978-619-92983-0-5
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CASHLESS PAYMENTS IN BULGARIA - DEVELOPMENT, REGULATION AND INTEGRATION INTO THE EURO AREA
The main objective of this study is to present an analysis of selected indicators of cashless payments in Bulgaria. The main activities in the process of integration to the euro area as well as changes in regulations at the EU level are examined. The main thesis is that non-cash payments are continuously increasing, both in number and in total value, due to technological changes, the development of EU regulations, as well as the integration of the Bulgarian payment infrastructure to that of the euro area. The number of credit cards as well as POS terminals has increased significantly. The number of credit transfers and card payments increased several times, with positive dynamics also characterising payments initiated via the Internet through both instruments. Similarly, the total value of payments is also developing and the trend is expected to continue in the future.
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INFLATION OR DEFLATION? CHINESE ECONOMY IN 2023
In March 2023, data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics showed that the growth rate of CPI narrowed and the decline rate of PPI widened from the previous. The downturn in price data triggered market discussions about economic "deflation". After a retrospective study of Chinese economy since 1980, we do not think that the downturn in price data is the start of economic "deflation", but rather the early stages of recovery after the end of the three-year epidemic.
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COOPERATIVE BANKS, WHAT ECOLOGICAL LEGITIMACY ?
Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015, European banks have invested 1.331 billion US $ in fossil fuels (Banking on Climate Chaos, 2023). The level of profit serves as a key incentive for banks to continue their involvement with fossil fuels. However, some banks have stopped these practices and committed to no longer supporting the expansion of this sector. This article aims to explore the role of banks, particularly cooperative banks, in combating climate change. Our objective is to examine to what extent cooperative banks are better positioned to tackle the challenges posed by climate change. The legitimacy of these banks is demonstrated through their capacity to adapt in a constantly evolving environment, and their foundational characteristics actively contribute to climate action.
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THE ROLE OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN ACCELERATING BULGARIA'S ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
One of the biggest challenges in developing countries is the shortage of accumulated capital, which must provide the necessary investment for economic growth. Developing countries are increasingly implementing policies targeting FDI to improve their international competitiveness and secure capital for economic development.
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SHOULD STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES PAY DIVIDENDS?
The dividend puzzle for private corporations has a long-lasting history. Six theories provide to certain extent explanations of this puzzle. However, the dividend puzzle has not yet been discussed as an economic problem for state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Thе article addresses this issue.
All well-known six theoretical concepts of the dividend puzzle are presented and their strengths and weaknesses are analysed. After that, the specific features of SOEs are brought out and the dividend puzzle for them is formulated. After presenting the experience of the dividend policy of SOEs, a confrontation with the theories is made. It is proved that only the theory of dividend payment preference is relevant to SOEs.
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BIG DATA, NEW ADVANCED ANALYSIS TOOLS FOR RESEARCHERS: THE CASE STUDY OF FORECASTED VOLATILITY OF THE USE ESG BONDS
The aim of this work is twofold. Firstly, we search to clarify the notion of Big Data (BD) and demonstrate that the taxonomy constitutes one of the fundamental tools to portray the BD characteristics. Secondly, we have shown that the traditional analysis instruments are now relatively obsolete to integrate such outstanding amount of data; consequently, new advanced analysis tools are recommended. Based on a neural network approach, we have found that this methodology improves the forecasting results of high volatility assets compare to a basic GARCH model.
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INFLATION 2022 - CIRCUMSTANCES, CHALLENGES, IMPACT
CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS
The ninth annual scientific conference of the Monetary and Economic Research Center (MRC) was held from the 18th to the 20th of September 2023 at the University of National and World Economy (UNWE) in Sofia, Bulgaria.
ISBN: 978-619-90797-9-9
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IMPACT OF AFTER COVID INFLATION ON INVESTOR PROTECTION
The after COVID inflation that started in the late 2021 seriously affected all EU economies. This paper aims at investigating how inflation impact the value of client assets invested on the capital market. It also concerns the issues of investor protection of such assets. Inflationary periods are stressful for the whole economy and especially for consumers. The longer inflation lasts the more significant impact it may have on investor behavior. In this paper it is argued that on a short term basis inflation could not be compensated at stock market prices but on a long term the capital market stock market returns overwhelms inflation. Investor protection regards the financial safety net which includes deposit guarantee and investor compensation schemes, which provide protection to investors at European level. Investor compensation schemes have not increased the level of protection for decades which due to the higher inflation rate causes a decreasing real protection. Deposit guarantee schemes on the contrary have imposed very high limit of protection in 2009 and 2010 which is 5 times higher than the minimum required limit on the EU level.
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EURO AREA MEMBERSHIP EFFECTS ON INFLATION
The inflation rates and their convergence within the Euro area were a major concern even before the advent of the single currency. The study attempts to examine the main factors of inflation and differentials in members of the Euro area for the period 2007–2022. The search for the causes of the current high inflation starts with the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic. The global economy recovered fast once the pandemic ended and the restrictions on consumption and travel were lifted. Then conflict between Russia and Ukraine caused energy and commodity prices, including food prices, to increase. The differences between the inflation rates in the various countries of the Euro area first started to widen in 2020 when the pandemic caused stronger disinflation in countries that have large tourism sectors. As the pandemic faded, inflation picked up most in countries where the economy had declined less and where labor shortages were starting to put pressure on wages.
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