Monetary Research Center

International Economics

WP 25/2021 The currency in Africa: history, regime and monetary system: the case of the Democratic Republic of Congo (in French)
by LUBOKOLO OBED | Friday, July 23, 2021
Notre travail porte sur la monnaie en République Démocratique du Congo (RDC) s’étalant sur la période allant de l’époque précoloniale, coloniale et ensuite post-coloniale. Il est question ici d’étudier de façon historique l’évolution et le fonctionnement du système monétaire de cette région en identifiant les facteurs qui ont conduit à la mise en place de sa monnaie ainsi que les variables monétaires qui jouent un rôle important au bon fonctionnement de son système monétaire. 
WP 24/2021 Currency Board Regimes for Lebanon: Impacts on Asset Convertibility
by HACHEM Hicham | Tuesday, June 1, 2021
The cascading breakdown of the Lebanese financial system has accelerating spillover effects over income, prices, and production. The economic outlook is catastrophic, and the impact of the currency crisis is directly linked to a meltdown in the productive sector, the dynamics of real income, prices, and the disruption of supply chains. To insulate the monetary base from discretionary fiscal spending, Currency Board models are advocated to restore confidence in the convertibility of assets and local currency. These regimes prove effective in reversing capital outflows and shaping the needed institutional environment for macroeconomic recovery and stability. This paper aims to provide answers to the question of whether a Currency Board system can restore asset convertibility in response to the Lebanese currency crisis. The point is to draw implications on economic recovery and stability. The analysis is focused on statistical methods that are grounded on a model theoretical approach to estimate parameters. The structure of the model is designed by a statistical classification analysis of the drivers of asset convertibility. Findings show that the suspension of convertibility is directly explained by foreign exchange parallel markets and by the reversal in capital flows. The findings also imply feedback loops in system dynamics that breed panic to fuel the crises. Results also imply that currency board models prove are adequate policies to restore confidence and the convertibility of assets and local legal tender as reserve currency is guaranteed by law under fixed exchange rates which are sterilized by the mechanism of the balance of payments. 
WP 23/2021 Balkan Monetary Dependence during the XIX and XX centuries
In this article, we look at the main stages of the monetary systems on the Balkans, representing a cyclical alternation of dependent models, each of them effectively serving the relationship of the Balkan peripheral economies with their dominant military, geopolitical and economic centre. This centre of attraction is the anchor against which the monetary regime of the periphery is adjusted. We consider four periods: (i) the building of a national monetary system after long years of Ottoman domination, and especially the accession to the Latin Monetary Union, (ii) the adoption of the rules of the League of Nations and monetary stabilizations based on the gold exchange standard, (iii) the inclusion in the German Lebensraum and the system of currency control and clearings, and finally (iv) the Soviet zone and the COMECON, the mechanism of passive money and the transferable ruble. In the last period we present the Yugoslav monetary regime, which was attached to the West.
International trade of Bulgaria and the EU since the outbreak of COVID-19
by IVANOVA Margarita | Sunday, January 31, 2021
In the dynamic conditions since the COVID-19, this paper explores the changes in international trade of Bulgaria and the European Union. It is structured in five parts. The first elaborates on the abrupt changes in the global context. The second examines the modifications in the Bulgarian export. The third analyses the imports in the country. The fourth studies the dynamics in EU exports. The fifth reviews the fluctuations in EU imports. The latest available data is used to draw conclusions that can be useful for experts and practitioners from a diverse set of academic backgrounds, including but not limited to: economics, business and international economic relations. In a broader sense, the study can be thought-provoking for those, who are interested in international trade in the current context.
EUROPE AFTER THE EU ELECTIONS: MONETARY AND ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES

The fifth annual scientific conference of the Monetary and Economic Research Center (MRC) was held from 17th to 18th of October 2019 at the University of National and World Economy (UNWE) in Sofia, Bulgaria.

The main accent on the 5th Annual Conference was the future of Europe's monetary and economic development after the EU elections. Researchers and professionals from more than 7 countries took part.

           ISBN: 978-619-90797-6-8 
WP 21/2020 The loss of discipline after EU Enlargement: a theoretical note
Michael Dooley (Dooley, 1997; Dooley, 2000) put forward an insurance model (or moral hazard model) of currency crises, which read in the modified Roger Garrison (Garrison, 2001) economic framework gives a good theoretical basis for the explanation of the overall dynamics of the post-communist transformation and especially the loss of discipline after EU accession. The article analyses also the role of monetary regimes (currency anchor) and EU enlargement (political and geostrategic anchor) and their relationships. The article proposes graphical representation and introducing some new concepts such as “insurance possibility frontier”, “market for insurable funds”, etc.  
WP 19_BG/2020 ЗА СЕНЬОРАЖА, И ЗА СЕНЬОРАЖА В ЛИВАН

Сеньоражът, неговата величина и начини на изчисление, както и счетоводно му записване, са важна тема в дебата върху финансовата криза в Ливан. Ще се спра, първо, върху някои принципни положения за сеньоража и второ, ще направя коментари, за това, как според мен може да се интерпретират данните за Ливан (базирайки се върху наличната информация и най-вече одита на EY and Deloitte, към края на 2018 г.). Оставам настрана политическите и геополитическите мотиви, които определят структурата на баланса на БдЛ. 

 
WP 19_EN/2020 COMMENTS ON SEIGNIORAGE IN LEBANON

The seigniorage (money income), its size and methods of calculation, as well as its accounting, are an important topic in the debate on the financial crisis in Lebanon. We will focus, firstly, on some principles of seigniorage, and secondly, on how we think the Lebanese data can be interpreted (based on the EY and Deloitte audit, for the end of 2018). We leave aside the political and geopolitical motives that determine the structure of the balance sheet of the Banque de Liban (BdL).

 
WP 19_FR/2020 COMMENTAIRES SUR SEIGNIORAGE AU LIBAN

Le seigneuriage (revenu monétaire), sa taille et ses méthodes de calcul, ainsi que sa comptabilité, sont un sujet important dans le débat sur la crise financière au Liban. Ici, nous nous concentrerons, premièrement, sur certains principes du seigneuriage et, deuxièmement, sur la manière dont nous pensons que les données libanaises peuvent être interprétées (tout cela sur la base de l'audit de EY et Deloitte, pour la fin 2018). Nous laissons de côté les motifs politiques et géopolitiques qui déterminent la structure et les mouvements du bilan de la Banque du Liban (BdL).

 
EU convergence and competitiveness: in search of modern industrial policy
by SPASOVA Elena | Wednesday, May 27, 2020
Global economic environment is changing dynamically due to a number of technological and political processes. While the European industries lose momentum in global competition, the internal EU problems remain unsolved and the idea of shared prosperity and growth clashes with the reality of multi-speed Europe and sluggish growth. After being denounced as obsolete and ineffective in the last couple of decades, in terms of changing post-crisis global landscape the idea of European industrial policy is revived. The newly established industrial policy paradigm at EU level after 2009 is examined in the context of the decreased investment activity; the structure of intra- and extra-EU trade; the political concept of EU construction and the core principles of integration. Economic divergence in the EU is identified as a challenge to be overcome by strategic industrial policies designed in the context of multi-speed Europe where non-convergence is recognized, and a joint growth strategy outward is elaborated. The paper discusses the possibility for building strategic industrial policy at EU level considering the economic reality in the Community. Global context is also considered. Recommendations for a modern industrial policy designed to restore economic growth and technological competitiveness are drawn up.

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