Monetary Research Center

International Economics

THE IMPACT OF THE FEDERAL OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE RATE ACTIONS DURING 2022 ON THE POPULARITY OF DIVIDEND STOCKS AMONGST RETAIL INVESTORS
by GODUMOV Alexander | Thursday, February 1, 2024
The question of the investors’ motivation in the investment decision making process is a topic that is always relevant and subject of research in the field of economics. The turbulence on the stock exchanges observed in the last few years makes this issue particularly relevant, and the introduction of new scientific knowledge in this direction equally useful. The question of the influence of dividend policy on the stock market performance of public companies is a question that has been examined repeatedly in the past, and to this day the companies’ dividend policy is of serious scientific interest. The past few years have been marked by significant stock market uncertainty and substantial inflation in the United States and many of the World’s leading economies. The observed upheavals in recent years have created fertile ground for the conduct of scientific research in the field of investing. This report examines the impact of the Federal Open Market Committee’s federal funds rate actions in 2022, and examines the extent to which these actions have had an impact on the popularity of dividend companies among individual investors
THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK AT 25: EFFЕCTIVENESS OF THE MONETARY POLICY
by CHOBANOV Dimitar | Thursday, February 1, 2024
25th anniversary of the European Central Bank is the occasion for an assessment of its monetary policy. Maintaining the price stability is the main objective according to the ECB statute. However, changes in economic conditions led to unconventional measures and additional objectives like financial stability. A set of indicators is used in order to assess the efficiency of the monetary policy medium-term inflation rate, deviation between the actual and the targeted interest rate on the interbank market and the output gap. Data shows that close to 50% of the time ECB failed to meet its inflation target.
GLOBAL SANCFLATION AS A REFLECTION OF THE IMPACT OF SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA TO INFLATION: SOME (IM)POSSIBLE COMPARISONS
by SIMEONOVA Elena | Thursday, February 1, 2024
The paper reflects some thoughts on the nexus between the sanctions against Russia and the global inflation rates since February 2022. The paper sets the following objectives: 1) to bring out and define the term sancflation, and 2) to search for other cases of similar global impact of the sanctions-inflation nexus. The thesis statement is that sanctions on Russia are unique and have global economic effects (including inflation) far greater than anything seen before. The global impact evaluation of Russia’s case should prompt a reconsideration of sanctions as a policy instrument.
DEFINING THE GREEN AGENDA: INTERNATIONAL AND EUROPEAN INSIGHTS INTO GREEN INDUSTRIAL POLICIES
by SPASOVA Elena | Thursday, February 1, 2024
This article explores the green political agenda's evolution, particularly its rise as a driving force behind green industrial policies since the 2000s. These policies have become instrumental for governments aiming to bolster their national businesses' competitive edge and international trade roles. The paper is structured in three main sections. The first section traces the evolution of the Green agenda from the 1970s to the present, highlighting its transformation in policy makers' eyes to an economic and strategic tool in the 2000s. It explores how green industrial policies emerged, influencing international trade dynamics and national economic strategies. The second section delves into the specific aims and instruments of these policies over the past decades. The third section provides an examination of green industrial policy measures enacted by the US, the EU, and China in recent years. The conclusion highlights challenges for European decision-makers in crafting effective green industrial measures and suggests areas for future discussion.
FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CEE COUNTRIES
Given the important financial sector’s role in economies, the study examines whether there is a relationship between the GDP growth and financial development of CEE countries. For this purpose, first the causality is tested by means of Granger-causality test and then an attempt is made to assess the influence of one variable on the other. The GDP growth and financial development’s relationship is examined for the ten countries in CEE, with the period covered being 2010-2022. It is expected that financial development has a great importance for the improved growth in the studied countries. Data on loans, deposits in the banking system, and market capitalization as a share of GDP are used. The results confirmed that financial sector contributes positively to the realization of higher and stable GDP growth in CEE countries.
ASYMMETRIC RIVALRIES: THE CASE OF LEBANON’S FINANCIAL CRISIS
by HACHEM Hicham | Thursday, February 1, 2024
Unlike mainstream explanations, this paper is less concerned with the causes of the financial crisis in Lebanon as much as it raises the problem of adverse relationships between institutions of money creation and destruction. The analysis builds on the theoretical approach of mimetic rivalries and applies tools from graphical models in games theory. It aims to study the sensitivity of solvency constraints to explain asymmetric relationships. The applied case of Lebanon shows two relevant results (1) asymmetric relationships between economic agents and (2) top-down dynamics of money creation and destruction. These findings imply an institutional model of extractive economic policy dominated by strategies of vindication and rivalry.
INFLATION AND DEFINED CONTRIBUTION PENSION SCHEMES IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN (CEE) COUNTRIES
by MILEV Jeko | Thursday, February 1, 2024
Pension systems in most of the CEE countries were significantly reformed at the beginning of 21st century. The introduction of fully funded components in addition to the traditional pay-as-you-go ones marked the beginning of a completely new age in the development of the pension systems in the region. The basic goal of the current paper is to research the investment performance of the defined contribution pension schemes in several CEE countries – Estonia, Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria. The thesis defended throughout the article is that conservative types of investment portfolios for long term investors such as pension funds are not appropriate especially under scenario of significant inflation rate. The results of the research show that those countries where pension fund managers were allowed to structure portfolios with different risk profile have much higher chance to protect the savings of insured individuals in real terms in prolong period.
THE EUROZONE VS. THE OPTIMAL CURRENCY AREA THEORY - SURVEY OF THEIR THEORETICAL FRAMEWORKS AND POLITICAL BACKGROUNDS
by RAEV Mikhail | Thursday, February 1, 2024
The paper surveys the development of the Optimal Currency Area theory and the Economic and Monetary Union. After a close examination of how Robert Mundell arrived at the former theoretical framework and its further elaboration by several economists, the paper draws the attempts at European economic and monetary unification. Based on the report One Market, One Money (1990), the author concludes that the economists of the European Commission did not follow the OCA theory, but used several contemporary monetary and macroeconomic findings to construct the theoretical framework behind the EMU.
“NUDGE” IN BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS– A POSSIBLE RESPONSE TO THE CHALLENGES OF HIGH INFLATION FOR 'BETTER' ECONOMIC DECISIONS OF THE INDIVIDUALS
by TCHIPEV Plamen and TCHIPEV Plamen and ERTURK-MINCHEVA Aygun | Thursday, February 1, 2024
The behavioral economics upgrades the psychological characteristics of the economic agent, homo economicus, when analyzing an individual's decisions, emphasizing their biases. The nudge approach developed by Richard Thaler is a good tool for improving economic decisions made by the individual. The nudging policies, with their flexibility to different conditions, low financial burden, and low instrumental complexity, are widely applicable. The current high levels of inflation amplify the potential for nudges to improve the quality of people's economic decisions. This paper focuses on the possibilities of behavioral economics in the inequalities and promoting savings behavior provoked by current reality using smart disclosure and choice drivers, pre-commitment with setting consumption limits, and promoting the setting of aims.
TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES IN THE CONSTRUCTION SECTOR IN SELECTED SOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE'S COUNTRIES
by ACKOVSKA Tatjana | Thursday, February 1, 2024
Southeastern Europe (SEE) constitutes a unique geographical sub-region of Europe. This region includes the Balkan countries, which are rich in cultural heritage, historical evolution, and geographical features. The countries in this region have varying stages of economic progress and development. Considering the variations and unique characteristics of the individual countries within the SEE group and whit purpose to provide a comprehensive coverage of all aspects of the construction sector, this paper focuses on the specificities, structure, development, and future trends in the construction markets of subset of nine SEE countries.

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